UK could face 45°C heatwaves within years, warns Met Office – A greener life, a greener world

By Anders Lorenzen

With countries across the globe hitting one deadly heat event after another, as the UK get to grips with its first heatwave of the year, experts warn that the UK could face 45°C heatwaves within just a few years.

The Met Office, a UK government scientific weather body, has today released a study stating that temperatures of 45 degrees C may already be a possibility, just years after the country in 2022 reached the 40 degrees C threshold for the first time. 

The study looked at the current escalating climate warming trends and found that as the world continues to burn fossil fuels at unprecedented levels, heatwaves in the UK could become longer and warmer.

Increasing likelihood of accelerating UK heat

The Met Office scientists found that the likelihood of temperatures exceeding 40 °C is rapidly accelerating. To reach such conclusions, they used a global climate model to create a large set of plausible climate outcomes in today’s current climate.  

Through that process, they were able to conduct a current risk assessment and examine how heat extremes have changed over the last few decades. 

“The chance of exceeding 40°C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s,” Dr Gillian Kay, a Senior Scientist at the Met Office, explained about their study. Adding more context, she said that due to the ongoing increasing warming trends, they estimate a 50-50 likelihood of experiencing a 40 °C day again within the next 12 years. Concerningly, for people struggling with heat, such as the elderly and vulnerable individuals, she added: “We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today’s climate.”

Heat records in the UK over time

UK heatwaves could last for a whole month

Examining the duration of prolonged heatwaves, Met Office Science Fellow and co-author of the study, Dr Nick Dunstone, explored the historical context. He explained: “The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28°C, which is a key heatwave threshold in southeast England.”

He further added that their study found that such conditions could persist for a month or more in today’s climate. In his view, that underscores that it is essential to prepare and plan for rising temperatures immediately, “so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat,” he added.

Why extreme heat poses a danger to the UK

While some countries around the world have consistently breached 45 °C, the combination of reaching this new threshold and more prolonged heatwaves could have profound health implications. 

Currently, the UK’s infrastructure is not well-suited for such extreme heat, as buildings and homes are not designed to withstand it. 

Although any country experiencing this level of heat will pay the price, meaning there will be limitations to outdoor activities, such as people working outside, outdoor sports, and so on. 

A warning to the government and policymakers

The Met Office hopes that this report sends an urgent message to the UK government and policymakers that preparing for extreme heat events is of the utmost urgency.

The UK government’s Climate Adaptation Research and Innovation Framework is tasked with outlining the need to improve knowledge and understanding of climate extremes, as well as developing tools for stress testing across key sectors. 

The Met Office, which is responsible for monitoring and modelling the UK’s climate, collects weather and climate records and assesses how the UK’s climate is evolving.

Anders Lorenzen is the founding Editor of A greener life, a greener world.